How the analysis is built
Every assessment applies a documented analytic method drawn from intelligence tradecraft and published openly, so a reader can see not just the conclusion but the reasoning and its limits.
Dual-axis labeling. Likelihood and analytic confidence are stated separately and explicitly. A judgment can be highly likely but held with low confidence, or the reverse — collapsing the two into a single vague adjective hides exactly the information a decision-maker needs.
Tiered evidence standards. Sources are classified by reliability, and the strength of the evidence behind each judgment is made visible rather than assumed. A conclusion resting on a single uncorroborated source is not presented as though it rests on several independent ones.
Explicit limits. Every assessment names what it does not cover, what remains unknown, and what would change the judgment. Analysis that admits no uncertainty is advocacy wearing the costume of analysis.
No advocacy. The work informs a decision; it does not argue for one. This discipline is what makes the output usable by counsel, investment committees, and decision-makers who need to reach their own conclusion on a documented basis.
The full methodology is documented across the WP-2026 research series, licensed under CC BY 4.0.
Detailed page in development
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