How the analysis is built
Every assessment applies a documented analytic method drawn from intelligence tradecraft and published openly, so a reader can see not just the conclusion but the reasoning and its limits.
Four rules applied to every publication
Dual-axis labeling
Likelihood and analytic confidence are stated separately and explicitly. A judgment can be highly likely but held with low confidence, or the reverse — collapsing the two into a single vague adjective hides exactly the information a decision-maker needs. The confidence standard follows Intelligence Community Directive 203.
Tiered evidence
Sources are classified by reliability, and the strength of the evidence behind each judgment is made visible rather than assumed. A conclusion resting on a single uncorroborated source is not presented as though it rests on several independent ones.
Explicit limits
Every assessment names what it does not cover, what remains unknown, and what would change the judgment. Analysis that admits no uncertainty is advocacy wearing the costume of analysis.
No advocacy
The work informs a decision; it does not argue for one. This discipline is what makes the output usable by counsel, investment committees, and decision-makers who need to reach their own conclusion on a documented basis.
Review, sources, and versions
Adversarial review. Each draft is tested against its strongest counter-arguments before release. Legislative discussion drafts are published with their adversarial legal review, so a reader can see the objections the draft was built to survive.
Verification. Factual claims are checked against primary sources — statutes, regulations, court records, official data — and cited. Where a claim rests on press reporting alone, or is an unadjudicated allegation, the publication says so.
Versions and corrections. Every publication carries a version number and a dated revision history. Material errors are corrected in a new version, and the change is described in the revision history rather than made silently. Corrections can be reported to contact@sanctir.com.
Sources and handling. Publications rely only on publicly available sources. They contain no classified information, no Controlled Unclassified Information, and no export-controlled technical data.
Independence
- Privately operated practice
- No current government affiliation
- No agency, political, or commercial sponsor
- Conflict-of-interest review on every engagement